Sunday, December 20, 2009

plus 4, Employee Issues - Seattle Post Intelligencer

plus 4, Employee Issues - Seattle Post Intelligencer


Employee Issues - Seattle Post Intelligencer

Posted: 20 Dec 2009 08:03 AM PST

Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell will leave the company at year's end.

Peter Klein, a corporate vice president and CFO of the Microsoft Business Division, has taken over for Liddell, the company said Tuesday. The two men will work together until Dec. 31 to ensure a smooth transition.

"My time at Microsoft has been an outstanding experience, and I am delighted to be leaving the company in such great shape," Liddell said in a statement.

In fiscal year 2009, Microsoft said, Liddell cut $3 billion in costs from the company's original outlook as the economy soured further.

Thanks mostly to the recession, Microsoft has fallen on uncharacteristically underwhelming financial times. While the software superpower continued to post healthy profits, Microsoft posted its first-ever year-over-year revenue drop in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2009, which ended June 30.

Liddell's cost-cutting measures helped the company's stock perform relatively well during that period, said Matt Rosoff, an analyst at the independent firm Directions on Microsoft. During FY2009, Liddell returned $14 billion to Microsoft shareholders in dividends and stock buy-backs, the company said.

"They reduced expenses pretty effectively at the beginning of the year," Rosoff said. "That was through reduced headcount, but also though other ways."

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Hard Assets Should Continue to Appreciate - Stockhouse

Posted: 20 Dec 2009 07:42 AM PST

Ciao!
A must read and an Eye opener for sure!

Educate yourself.
Sicilian

Sprott's Oliver & Horvat: Hard Assets Should Continue to Appreciate
Source: The Gold Report; interviewed by Karen Roche, Publisher 12/08/2009

The devil will be in the details of the balance sheet when hyperinflation hits. And while lots of companies have been using leverage to drive their ROE (and their stock prices), the structure of their debt may spell the difference between prospering and perishing. Those with low-interest debt that's locked in for a long spell actually will be poised to retire their obligations with cheaper dollars. But woe betide those stuck with floating rates. That's how Sprott Asset Management senior portfolio managers Charles Oliver and Jamie Horvat see what's brewing beyond the horizon, when time comes to pay the price for running the money-printing presses too hot and too long. As Charles and Jamie suggest in this exclusive Gold Report interview, investors who base decisions on the strength and structure of the balance sheet may not do too badly. In fact, they explain how the stock market itself may serve as a hedge against hyperinflation.

The Gold Report: A lot has happened to influence gold prices since the last time we spoke with you in June. India and Russia started buying bullion, which helped increase the prices. Now, the news from Dubai has put some downward pressure on prices. What does all of this mean for the gold sector?

Charles Oliver: In terms of central banks buying, it's very positive. You mentioned India, which just bought a couple hundred tons from the IMF. Sri Lanka also bought 10 tons, and Mauritius bought two tons. We've also seen the Russians buying and there's talk of China buying more—after the 400 tons they added in April.

So we're seeing some very positive fundamentals on the demand side of the equation. The last decade the central banks have been net sellers. It looks as if maybe over the next 12 months central banks will be net buyers, which is a completely turnaround.

I am not going to make too much out of Dubai and its implications for the gold price. We saw a small correction in every asset when the news came out. Everybody sold a bit of everything; I think that was just a knee-jerk reaction. If you look at the chaos in the financial markets, gold is actually a safe-haven area.

Jamie Horvat: The only thing I'll add is that it appears gold is reasserting itself as a currency, instead of being viewed solely as a commodity.

As far as Dubai goes, as Charles said, short-term it looks as if a lot of people got spooked in the market and started taking profits. Gold, obviously, has been pretty profitable year-to-date and we saw a couple of days of selling where people got nervous and wanted to lock in their returns. But that panic selling seems to have ceased.

TGR: Most people expect that all the money printing that's happened is going to lead to inflation—or worse. What's your view on that?

JH: Our view is moving more toward the probability of hyperinflation as governments have actually stepped up their stimulus programs and their deficit spending.

TGR: Let's define hyperinflation. Everyone knows it's big inflation, but what does that mean?

CO: The dictionary gives no fixed definition, but one of the best descriptions I have heard is that hyperinflation is an inflation in which the rate is measured in months or days rather than years. In my mind, if you're running at 50%, you're basically there. But again, there is no absolute number.

JH: One of the other things we've come across and talked about in the past is the aspect of monetary debasement or monetary inflation, where there's a definition for hyperinflation we came across stated as very high or out-of-control inflation due to currencies rapidly losing their value resulting in rapid price increases for all other goods.

TGR: So it's not necessarily the Zimbabwe type of hyperinflation, but something that certainly North America hasn't seen.

CO: Just after the Civil War, the U.S. did go through a period of hyperinflation. Everyone on the planet has at some point basically experienced hyperinflation. And that includes the Chinese; I believe it was around 1945 they went through a period of hyperinflation.

TGR: But this time you're looking at this potential hyperinflation as being a worldwide phenomenon—not one country at a time.

CO: It all depends on what the individual governments do. Right now, many of those countries are continuing to expand their monetary base. They're spending money left, right and center. Governments that continue to expand the monetary base at an increasing rate will share in the hyperinflationary phenomenon. Not every country's going to do that, and we ultimately don't know how it will unfold but as Jamie mentioned, we are seeing a lot of signs that governments are continuing to spend vast sums.

Just as an example, the U.S. is spending a huge amount this year. The healthcare program is going to cost them more money. The demographic story that's going on out there, as people retire, Social Security payments will increase while the tax revenues decrease. The Prime Minister of Japan and government bankers there are reportedly having discussions about quantitative easing, which, again, quantitative easing is printing money. The Bank of England has embarked upon a huge program of quantitative easing. Those governments that are going to ultimately pay the price.

TGR: In our last conversation, you mentioned that stock market studies suggest one of the best ways to protect your assets is investing in the market. Can you elaborate on why that works? And whether it would work in a hyperinflationary environment?

CO: If you go through a period of hyperinflation, the worst thing you can own is cash because it becomes worthless. You want to own assets that will protect you against inflation. Gold is one of the simplest things that we all talk about as protecting against inflation. But interestingly enough, if you go back to Weimar Republic, Germany and if you look at the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange a few years ago, the stock exchanges actually acted as an inflation hedge. That's because many of the companies on the exchanges actually pushed through price increases on their end products. Hence, during a hyperinflationary period, these companies were selling their products for much higher year after year after year and their prices went up to reflect that huge increase in earnings. The huge earnings increases were not the result of improvements in productivity or expanding and growing their companies. It was based purely upon the inflated prices they charged for the goods they were selling. So, yes, the stock market can be a very good hedge against hyperinflation as well as inflation.

JH: I'd argue that the stock market is potentially taking on this role already. It may be starting to act as an inflation hedge, as discussions have been coming out of China, Japan, Russia, and even the recent Fed minutes talking about the low interest rate policy in the U.S. and the U.S. dollar as potentially the new carry trade, resulting in this inflation of assets bubble globally. If you can borrow money at prime less 25 or 50 basis points, or essentially for free if you are one of the big U.S. banks that received a bailout, and can put that to work in the market to buy stocks and assets forcing prices up, or you can earn a yield spread, then under these circumstances, I would argue—as many central banks have stated—that this free money is causing the market to act as an inflation hedge.

CO: Just a small counterpoint to my partner in crime. . . . At the beginning of this year, we thought hyperinflation would happen several years out. With the market performing as well as it has, it's a bit of a conundrum with our belief of where we think the market should be valued. Jamie correctly points out that you can explain this by talking about it acting as a hedge against inflation or hyperinflation. But to some extent, my own personal view is that the big movement in stocks will be several years out, and that's contingent upon the governments continuing to expand and spend money at an increasing rate.

People always ask what the risk is to your expected outcome. And the risk is that at some point in time, some of these governments will start to get religion. If you go back to the 1970s, the U.S. was going through a period of huge stagflation. And then one man sort of stood out of the crowd—Paul Volcker. When he got religion and raised interest rates and did the right thing, people absolutely hated him. We look back now and say, "You know what? He stood up; he did the right thing. The U.S. was in a much better place and continued to be a very stable and good environment to invest in, to grow in." So that's the one risk, that there's another Paul Volcker out there who steps up to the plate.

JH: One counterpoint to my earlier argument about the market acting as a carry trade, as Charles said earlier, the thing you have to monitor when you look globally, is the U.K. still has a negative GDP number. The U.S. recently revised the third-quarter number down from 3.5% to 2.8%. Look at Canada. Look at Japan. There's no growth without government stimulus.

So if governments rein in or pull back the stimulus spending or someone gets religion and bumps interest rates 25 basis points, we could easily set up for a double-dip scenario or double-dip recession because the consumer is dead. And without the incentive to spend there is no consumer spending and growth.

TGR: If you're looking at investing in 2010, it sounds like the hyperinflation issues will happen several years out, and in the largest consuming nations we continue to have government expanding the M1 to provide stimulus, which will keep the market growing because the market is going to grow as a hedge. So should we take advantage of the market hedging potential inflation in 2010, and then bail out when we see hyperinflation on the horizon?

CO: We spend a lot of time trying to figure out how next year will unfold. It's a very tough call. Having said that, as long as Ben Bernanke says for the next 12 to18 months the Fed will keep rates low, you could see the stock market show some strength. I think as the market goes higher, the risk of a downturn increases because a lot of the growth in the stock market is people paying higher multiples for earnings.

If you look at the economy, we still have a very weak consumer and very weak earnings growth. A lot of it is a result of cost cutting, and there comes a point where you just can't cut any more costs out. Hence, you may see the stock market continue to go up, but I think the risk is significant that we see a double-dip recession, and as soon as the market catches a whiff that rates are going to start increasing, it probably will take a very big knock.

Again, we don't know exactly how and when that will happen, but we do see the market getting more and more expensive. So I think you'll want to tread very carefully, because there's a significant risk that at some time in 2010 the economy may go back into a double-dip recession.

TGR: Will it be as dramatic as the one that started in 2008?

CO: I don't think so, but it depends on how things play out. If you see the market get really, really expensive and continue upwards, it's going to have to come down further. My personal view is that it won't be as aggressive, but we will continue to monitor that and be ready to be wrong.

In 2008 the whole financial system looked like it was about to implode, and now we've seen if that happens, the government plans to take action. Unfortunately, the action is taking taxpayer dollars and giving them to the banks, but they are ready to act. In that case, the same degree of fear may not exist as it did in 2008 when people were fearful that the whole system would collapse.

JH: I agree with Charles as he hit it on the head. You have to question how forward-looking is the market? When does the market wake up and realize that the growth we had was all predicated on government spending and cost cuts? We can't cost-cut our way to prosperity. At some point the government stimulus and spending have to cease and we have to pay for all of this through future concessions, lowering the benefits that we were going to receive in the future and increases to our taxes.

Also we still need to repair our balance sheet. We haven't really solved the problem of all of those toxic assets and the quadrillion or $800 trillion of derivatives—whatever the number may be; it is still lingering out there.

So it's going to be an ongoing period of lower growth and balance sheet repair. When does the market correct? As Charles said, and I said earlier, that will happen as soon as we get a whiff that interest rates are going to go up.

TGR: Let's talk about some of those companies that have the model balance sheet—debt is low, they'll be able to service debt, and should a downturn happen either in the economy or in the market, they will be able to survive.

CO: Within every sector some companies have healthy balance sheets and surplus cash, and some have debt. Look at base metals, for example. Last year, HudBay Minerals Inc. (TSX:HBM) was trading at a discount to its net cash, and Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE:TCK), which had an awful lot of debt because it had purchased its coal assets at the top of the market. Our preference is to take the one with the lower risk profile in terms of its potential to continue operating.

The picture also varies from sector to sector. In certain areas, generally speaking, you see a lot of companies with an awful lot of debt. For instance, there's lots of debt in the banking sector. So from a macro point of view, that would be something to avoid. On the other side, a lot of material stocks have very healthy balance sheets. They've been getting high commodity prices for the last several years; so unless they've been on spending sprees, for the most part they have been building up cash balance sheets.

JH: In consumer staples, a lot of the big conglomerates serve as a primary model of how they've been driving ROE through leverage. Their ability to continue to finance going forward is doubtful once rates increase substantially as overall the margins may be pretty slim. So you really have to pick and choose within each segment—the HudBays versus the Tecks, as Charles indicated.

TGR: As you said, material stocks have built up healthy balance sheets due to increase in prices of the underlying commodities. Why haven't gold stocks increased valuations to reflect the 35% increase we've seen in the price of gold?

CO: There has been a disconnect between the gold price and gold stocks certainly over the last year and a half. I think we can all agree that 2008 was really an anomalous year. A gold stock was a stock; the fact that it was in gold did not matter. So gold stocks just went down with the rest of the stock market, and this year we've been playing catch-up. The gold stocks have done very well.

Having said that, one sub-sector of the gold stocks has been the best. We've seen brilliant returns in some mid-cap gold producers, while at the same time some big-cap gold names and some early-stage names whose access to capital has been a bit of an issue have underperformed.

The S&P Global Gold Index is up around 10%, which really isn't a very good return; you would have done better than that if you held gold. But look at an index made up of mid-cap names or look at many of the gold funds in those mid-cap areas. Or look at our own fund—we're up over 100% year-to-date as we speak. There's been some very good performance from many of our peers as well.

TGR: So, is the reason some are outperforming the gold primarily back to that balance sheet issue and the debt?

CO: Except for some of the large caps, I think most gold companies generally have fairly strong balance sheets. A lot of them avoid too much debt because it's a very tough business, and they don't want to get themselves over-leveraged. For the most part, I think the dichotomy between the performance of the large and small caps relative to the mid-caps is just one of those things. Next year I wouldn't be surprised to see—in fact, I expect to see—large caps and small caps outperform the mid caps. They get out of whack sometimes, but eventually they tend to act as a group, so I expect that to become more normalized next year.

TGR: So if we want to look at companies with sound balance sheets in the group, which companies fall into those categories from your analysis—small caps, mid caps and big caps?

CO: The large caps—companies like Goldcorp (TSX:G) (NYSE:GG), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU, JSE:ANG, ASX:AGG, LSE:AGD), Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE:GFI)(JSE:GFI), Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ:GOLD)?, Kinross Gold Corp. (K.TO; NYSE:KGC)?, IAMGOLD (TSX:IMG). Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW, TSX:SLW)?—Silver Wheaton is actually on the verge of becoming a large cap; it probably is a large cap now.

JH: Red Back Mining Inc. (TSX-V:RBI) is probably considered a large cap now too.

CO: Among the mid-cap names, I think of companies such as Osisko Mining Corporation (TSX:OSK), Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX:WDO) and San Gold Corporation (TSX-V:SGR).

JH: Also Lake Shore Gold Corp. (TSX:LSG) and Aurizon Mines Ltd. (NYSE/AMEX:AZK; TSX:ARZ) . And Romarco Minerals (TSX.V:R) have strong balance sheets.

CO: Romarco is sort of a small cap breaking into the mid-cap range. Generally speaking, the small caps tend to be more in exploration or development-stage projects. Some of the names may not be familiar. Within every country you can see a lot of small caps. One of our themes is monitoring the jurisdictions these companies operate in because governments sometimes change loyalties. We like stable areas. North America is a pretty good region to operate in. Companies like Rainy River Resources Ltd. (TSX-V:RR). What else do we have in North America, Jamie?

JH: Premier Gold Mines Limited (TSX:PG). Brett Resources Inc. (TSX-V:BBR)—the Hammond Reef project. International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (NYSE/AMEX: THM; TSX-V:ITH).

CO: Let's pick some small-cap players in Brazil— Verena Minerals Corporation (TSX-V:VML.V). Amarillo Gold Corporation (TSX-V:AGC), Brazauro Resources (TSX-V:BZO), Magellan Minerals Ltd. (TSX.V:MNM). So that's just a smattering of names in the different groups.

TGR: Four companies made it into your top 10 for both the Sprott Gold Precious Metals Fund and the Sprott All Cap Fund— IAMGOLD, Kinross, Osisko and Silver Wheaton. Can you give us some more insight into how and why they achieved that ranking?

CO: I think of those as anchor names within the portfolio. It acts as a core. They're good, sound companies, well-diversified and with a number of different operations. The one that's a bit of an outlier among those you mentioned is Osisko. We've owned it for awhile, but increased our position over a year ago because we thought it was very cheap. Osisko has a very big, very promising deposit in Quebec. We felt that the market was undervaluing it dramatically. Great growth story, very cheap, strong balance sheet, fully cashed up.

JH: Another point about our top 10—many of them grow into those positions. Just over a year or even two years ago, people hated IAMGOLD and wouldn't give CEO Joe Conway any benefit of the doubt. It was a show-me story. Everyone saw a declining growth profile for the company for the next couple of years until a few other projects came on. But Joe was one of the few people out there willing to do something at one of the dour times in the market. He bought the Essakane Project in West Africa and advanced it forward, and now he's ahead of schedule and is showing a really good growth profile. People are willing to pay for that growth now, and you saw significant movement in the stock price.

Another example is Silver Wheaton. A year or so ago, people were dour in the market, silver was down and we had the financial collapse, but with Peñasquito coming on out of Goldcorp and the silver stream there along with a few other assets, investors became positive on the silver and gold price and the profile for the company. You can witness the movement in Silver Wheaton's stock price as a result.

So more often than not, these are companies that have grown into these positions over time.

CO: Jamie was quite right, and I think it's very important to know. We don't generally go in to a portfolio and say, "We're going to make this our largest position." It's usually growth from an initial position that gets larger through the performance of the stock that brings it to that magnitude. Our gold fund's top 10 is usually big, well-diversified producers or stocks that have run an awful lot. In the case of the first three, they are big, well-diversified producers, and as I said, Osisko's been a great performer. It's one of those mid-cap names that I mentioned that has had stunning performance.

One of things I can tell you is somewhere below that top 10 list there's another Osisko, which next year will probably break into the top 10. Again, it will be through the outperformance of the company and growing recognition by the investment community of the value of that company's projects and assets.

TGR: If investors are already well into their gold positions in their portfolio, what other sectors should they be looking at?

CO: Gold is our favorite sector. On a long-term basis, we're believers in peak oil, too, so we believe that energy should be part of an investor's outlook. In terms of mid-term themes, we think over the next decade there are some areas in which to have some exposure that maybe over the last two decades weren't so important. Agriculture is one example. A decade ago nobody talked about agriculture. I think now it's very important, and the macro themes are very compelling for why investors would want to get into agriculture.

TGR: Okay. Agriculture is one. Where else?

CO: We think infrastructure will be a good area. With all the government spending that's going on, there's going to be a lot of spending in infrastructure. We've gone through a year of talking about it. So far, the infrastructure companies haven't really benefited that much because it's been a time for signing contracts and getting everything put in place. The real spending comes on later down the line.

JH: We're looking at areas of the healthcare sector as well, but it's more on the productivity, technology and medical equipment side and not so much in biotech and pharmaceuticals. So the bread-and-butter supply types of companies look pretty good.

There's some appeal in the technology space as well, with developments that enhance productivity and make companies a little more efficient.

TGR: Anything else you'd like to tell our readers?

JH: Keep the faith. As long as governments continue to print money and debase fiat currencies, hard assets should continue to appreciate and do well as a store of value.

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John Kass - Chicago Tribune

Posted: 20 Dec 2009 07:56 AM PST

In the rarefied atmosphere of the Supreme Court this month -- a universe seemingly removed from the earthy politics of Chicago -- a group of great legal minds gathered to debate constitutional law and corruption.

The question they wrestled over is of great interest to every crooked Illinois politician and every Outfit messenger boy from Chinatown to Los Angeles and back to the Jersey shore:

Do Americans have the right to expect honesty from their elected officials?

It seems like a no-brainer. When politicians raise their right hand and swear the oath of office, Americans have this stubborn idea that the politicians shouldn't be crossing their fingers with their left.

(Even in Illinois, with a former Republican governor in prison and a former Democratic governor standing in the vestibule, with a bipartisan Combine that runs things, and a City Hall that reaches into the White House, we'd like to think that we, too, live in America.)

Earlier this month, the justices heard arguments about the "theft of honest services" portion of the federal mail fraud statute. I had written about the issue in November.

Powerful men of politics and business want it tossed out. Prosecutors like it because it wins convictions in a time when corruption has evolved far beyond stuffing an envelope with cash. Opponents argue it is too vague. Both sides made compelling cases.

One justice listened without much commentary. But he knows about corruption and powerful men and ruling elites. He's almost 90 years old. He wears a bow tie. He's been lambasted as both a conservative and a liberal during his almost 40 years on the court.

Yet unlike the others on the court, he's from Chicago. As a kid, he attended that World Series at Wrigley Field in 1932 and saw Babe Ruth call his shot and hit a home run that crushed another generation of Cubs fans.

Justice John Paul Stevens grew up here, where his father built the Stevens Hotel, now the Hilton. Stevens met the ballplayers, saw the politicians, and surely must have heard about the Outfit. Years later, he became a respected antitrust lawyer. And in the late 1960s, when folks thought corruption couldn't get worse, he was asked to serve as chief legal counsel for a blue-ribbon anti-corruption committee.

You've seen blue ribbon panels before. The members meet and issue a report. The news media get excited. We shake our fingers in anger. But the anger fades. When another blue-ribbon panel is needed, the bosses call the usual suspects.

In 1969, Stevens' panel was charged with investigating corruption in the Illinois Supreme Court. But he didn't play by the blue-ribbon rules.

Theodore Isaacs, a banker and Democratic power broker, had been accused of secretly giving bank shares to two state Supreme Court justices who were about to rule on a state criminal corruption case involving Isaacs.

Stevens issued subpoenas, held hearings and forced witnesses to testify. He ran up against Isaacs' powerful friends, influential stockholders in the bank, and Isaacs' allies in media and politics.

But the report Stevens issued -- in only six weeks -- led to the resignations of Illinois Supreme Court Justices Roy Solfisburg and Ray Klingbiel. Stevens never held a news conference. He never consented to a TV interview on the panel's work.

Yet he'd earned prominence, and a year later was appointed to the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. In 1975, then-President Gerald Ford nominated Stevens to the Supreme Court. And in 1987, Stevens offered a dissent that suggests his experience contending with Illinois corruption informed some of his thinking.

Why would I think that his experience with Illinois corruption may have informed some of his decisions?

Because years ago, when the honest-services question was first before the court, the prevailing mood of the jurists was like it is now -- to toss it out and allow Congress to fix it. Back then, the court restricted use of federal mail-fraud statutes in criminal cases. Congress did respond, adding a one-line amendment saying a fraudulent scheme includes one to "deprive another of the intangible right of honest services."

If today's court throws out the honest-services provision, the expectation among some lawyers is that Congress would once again fix it and make the language less vague.

But does anyone expect White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, D-Tomczak, to push real ethical reform for President Barack Obama that would threaten powerful, connected politicians in Illinois?

Not bloody likely. If you believe that one, then smoke another bowl of Hopium.

In his 1987 dissent, Stevens thought it was quite obvious that the people had an intangible right to honest service. Anyone familiar with sophisticated, high-level corruption in Illinois would have known that it's not merely about the theft of money or property, but about something more valuable:

The people's belief that the system isn't completely rigged. Without that belief, cynicism becomes even more corrosive than ever, and things could get dangerous.

"The possibilities that the decision's impact will be mitigated (by Congress) do not moderate my conviction that the Court has made a serious mistake," Stevens wrote in his dissent. "Nor do they erase my lingering questions about why a Court that has not been particularly receptive to the rights of criminal defendants in recent years has acted so dramatically to protect the elite class of powerful individuals who will benefit from this decision."

Elite class of powerful individuals?

The arc of his public service began 40 years ago fighting corruption in Illinois. He is expected to retire soon, and public corruption may be one of the last issues he considers as a member of the court.

Stevens wrote his 1987 dissent in Washington. But even in the rarefied air of the Supreme Court, it was obvious that at least one justice knew how Chicago really works.

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Kalamazoo's economic guru stresses positive outlook for 2010 - MLive.com

Posted: 20 Dec 2009 08:10 AM PST

By Alex Nixon | Kalamazoo Gazette

December 20, 2009, 8:03AM
kitchensChasing jobs: Ron Kitchens, chief executive officer of Southwest Michigan First, on how the financial crisis made his economic-development efforts more difficult in 2009: "This time last year I couldn't have imagined how much of my life in the first half of the year would be dedicated to … (finding) replacement financing."
KALAMAZOO — It was going to be hard for 2009 to measure up to 2008 when it came to job growth in Southwest Michigan.

And that was before the financial system collapsed.

But Ron Kitchens, chief executive officer of private economic-development organization Southwest Michigan First, says despite the challenges, the region will bring in new companies and jobs in 2010.

"I think we're going to see strong job growth," he told the Kalamazoo Gazette during a recent interview that focused on economic-development efforts this year and how the outlook for 2010 is shaping up.

In 2008, a host of companies announced intentions to create more than 6,000 jobs here in the coming years. By comparison, Kitchens said, companies in 2009 made announcements to create 876 jobs.

It was a difficult year-to-year comparison made even tougher by the national recession, a major pullback in business lending and a slow down in pharmaceutical industry research caused by two major deals: Pfizer Inc. buying Wyeth and Merck & Co. Inc. acquiring Schering-Plough Corp.

"A couple of things that hurt us this year was not only the economy and financing, but that the mergers of the big pharmaceutical companies shut the industry down for nine months," Kitchens said.

Drug research activity is coming back, he said, which will be good next year for the region's many contract-research organizations — especially MPI Research, the Mattawan-based firm that in 2008 pledged to create 3,300 new jobs here.

And private investment money raised by Southwest Michigan First is drawing more interest from companies in need of financing and willing to set up shop in the Kalamazoo area.

But, Kitchens warns, 2010 has the potential to be a negative year as Michigan's unemployment rate is unlikely to get any better, the state budget remains deeply in the red and the gubernatorial race will heat up.

"Next year will be the most negative year that any of us will live through," he said, speaking of election politics, budget wrangling and escalating military wars. "We can't let that negativity ooze into this community."

Below are Kitchens' responses to questions posed by a Gazette reporter on the area's economic pulse — from job creation and bank financing to life-science development and new business growth.

Question: At the beginning of 2009, you predicted Kalamazoo would continue to be an economic leader, and that from 1,000 to 2,000 new jobs would be created. How'd you do?
Kitchens: Jobs announced this year by new and expanded companies — 876. We've been plugging along.

Take Parker Pneumatics (Parker Hannifin Corp.'s pneumatics division in Richland), that's the latest one — 50 jobs to Kalamazoo from a Pennsylvania plant. And 200 jobs (here because) Mann + Hummel closing a plant in South Bend (Ind.) and adding jobs because of the Chevy Volt. …

Deals have been smaller than the historic average and they're taking longer. But we have more in our deal pipeline than the historic average as well. …

This time last year I couldn't have imagined how much of my life in the first half of the year would be dedicated to working with small, high-quality companies on finding them replacement financing. ...

There is virtually no bank financing. The only bank financing is (from) locally owned banks. … Without them we really would have been in trouble.

Q: Is the business environment getting any better?
K: We're certainly seeing good companies succeed. The funny thing is how many people will whisper in our ear, 'Don't tell anybody but I had my best year ever.' ...
But when you lose jobs you lose them by the hundreds, and when you replace them you replace them by the tens. So even when things turn around, you know, they drop off the cliff fast and come back up the mountain slowly. So in 2010, I think we're going to see more companies add jobs. We know we are. We're seeing it now. But they're going to add them by the tens. So it's going to take a while to get back up to that historical rate.

Q: Is there enough capacity among local banks to get back to strong growth, or do you need the large banks to start lending again?

K: We need large amounts of capital. So we're encouraging the local governmental units to make deposits locally because we know those dollars will be reinvested locally. But at some point we're going to exceed our local capacity and we're going to need the big regional banks to get active again. Banks like PNC (Financial Services Group Inc.); I think we're beginning to see them get more active again. Their merger and sorting that out (with National City Corp.) has taken a bit.

Q: Did you have any deals completely fall through because of the financial crisis?

K: Sure. We had a number of them. … The biggest thing is the unrealized expansions. We've had a number of companies that could have or should have expanded, who had a keen desire to expand, but because of the lack of financing they have either pulled back from that or couldn't consummate a deal. ...
That's why we're looking at Europe (to bring in new jobs) because they're (European companies are) looking at the U.S. as a good bargain right now. We're focusing on eight or 10 Eastern European companies that have expressed a strong interest in this location, and financing is not a big deal to them because the dollar is cheap right now. I think we're going to see a lot of that.

Q: Did Kalamazoo continue to refuse to participate in the recession in 2009?

K: Yeah, but we went kicking and screaming. We were dragging our heels pretty hard. … We're the only metro area in the state that's moving forward in a positive manner (according to a report from Moody's Economy.com). I believe that to be true, but I also know I have 20,000 people out of work in (Kalamazoo) County. And it's not a recession for them, it's a depression. So I don't want to be arrogant about it. If you don't have a job it hurts. So we get up every day with a passion that we have to find jobs for people that need work. …

Q: Has your strategy changed in the recession? Are there any new opportunities in terms of chasing industries or companies that weren't there before?

K: What we know is there are opportunities and things change in down economies. … There are more people who want to start companies and there are more people looking at building their company because maybe they were happy before, but then they lost a customer or two and so they know they have to grow. So we're doing more business consulting now and technical development work than I ever thought we would do. …
We have three or four Israeli companies that are going through the financing side and are looking to locate here. I think that could be something big next year.

Q: What's the latest with life-science development in this area?

K: Medical device (sales) is growing at 8 percent a year and has been for decades, and it's going to continue to grow. … You're seeing companies like Stryker get leaner, hiring engineers, redeveloping processes. You're going to see great things out of them.
And we're going to have multiple new companies open up. I'm meeting with three doctors this week that have patents or want to file patents on medical-device stuff. So this is the year that we'll do a medical-device incubator. That's one reason we're so focused on Israel. They have the best incubation system in the world. ...

We'll start (a medical-device incubator) in an existing space. … We're actively recruiting someone to run it and we'll raise the money privately. … We think we'll need $8 to $10 million to fund six companies a year, which we think is our critical mass. Do six each year. It takes about two years (before some start leaving and they are replaced). We'll make it happen. We'll find the money.

Q: Any final thoughts on what we can expect in 2010?

K: I think the biggest caution we have is the level of negativity that is going to permeate this state. And if we as a region buy into it — growing up in the Missouri Ozarks there's a saying: "Stealing peas."
You wouldn't let someone come into your house and steal food off your child's plate. But when you let people speak negative of your community or your church or business, they're driving investment away. It's the equivalent of taking food off your child's plate. It's the equivalent of stealing peas.
We've got to this year put a stop to it. We've got to say to these politicians (running for governor in 2010): 'I don't want to hear about your 98-point plan about how bad things were. Tell us your three-point plan for how we're going to go from good to great.'

Q: Can I get another predication from you for job creation in 2010?

K: Sure. We think job creation will be somewhere — gosh, I'm forever the optimist and I know the deals we have in the pipeline — I think we're going to see 2,000 to 3,000 jobs created from deals we work in the next year.

Contact Alex Nixon at (269) 388-2783 or anixon@kalamazoogazette.com.

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What is this going to cost? - Bismarck Tribune

Posted: 20 Dec 2009 08:03 AM PST

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